Newsletter summary

Supply increases and demand fallsCrashtimeiiEgg prices are under short-term pressure; costs fall.CrashtimeiiSeptember contract prices may rise first and then fluctuate.

Text of news flash

[the imbalance between supply and demand in the market is expected to be under pressure in the short term]

Recently, the increase in production capacity of laying hens is expected to remain unchanged, but there are obvious signs of weakening on the demand side. After the May Day holiday, the demand in the terminal market has weakened, the overall pattern of oversupply in the market has not improved, and the spot market price has been suppressed. However, the unfavorable spot market price may restrain the enthusiasm of farmers to fill the fence, and the elimination rate of old chickens may be accelerated, which will limit the production capacity of Yuanyue laying hens and be good for long-term egg prices. On the cost side, market expectations of egg prices have declined due to the expected increase in production capacity. In addition, the decline in market prices of corn and soybean meal is expected to increase, breeding costs are likely to decline further, and the bottom support is weakened. For September contracts, although prices rose at the end of the month, the market had limited upward momentum in the absence of obvious positive factors, such as bird flu. It is expected that futures prices may return to a volatile downward trend after a short-term inertia rally. In order to make a reasonable investment decision, investors should pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand, the trend of cost-side price and the trend of contract price in September.