Newsletter summary

In April, the domestic economy continued to expand, GDP growth exceeded expectations, the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed to build a new real estate development model, and the valuation of real estate stocks is expected to rebound. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its May meeting, and U. S. economic data were weaker than expected. Bullish sentiment in the financial options market is rising, with trading expected to be low in PCR and high in PCR positions in May. Copper and aluminum options bullish mood is high, methanol, PTA options market long and short mood is low. Risk factors include poor economic data and stronger-than-expected Fed tightening signals.

Text of news flash

Domestic manufacturing and non-manufacturing continued to expand, GDP growth exceeded expectations. In April, manufacturing and non-manufacturing continued to expand, and enterprise production and operation activities continued to grow. The suspension and acquisition of Guolian Securities has stimulated the M & An expectation of the whole securities sector and promoted the process of the construction of the financial power system. In addition, China's GDP grew by 5% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year.Spaceinvaderspinball.3%, 4.9% higher than expected, indicating that the basic trend of economic recovery remains unchanged. On April 30, the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting and put forward policies and measures on the new model of real estate development in order to promote the high-quality development of the real estate industry. Affected by this policy, real estate stocks are expected to usher in the opportunity of valuation rebound. At the same time, foreign investors have begun to supplement the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets. Chinese assets are currently in a valuation depression and have great potential for growth. During the May Day holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rose sharply, and the A50 index also rose at the same time, reflecting the increased preference of international funds for A-shares and Hong Kong stock markets. It is expected that the stock index will continue the trend of more volatility in the future. The Federal Reserve held its meeting in May and the US economic data were weaker than expected. on the international front, the Fed announced at its May meeting that interest rates would remain unchanged, sending a signal that it would not raise interest rates in the short term. Fed Chairman Colin Powell's speech dispelled market expectations of further interest rate increases and is expected to keep interest rates stable. Us April non-farm and PMI data were sharply lower than expected, causing the dollar index and US bond yields to fall sharply, while European and American stock markets rose and market risk fell. The short sentiment in the options market is exhausted, and the trading activity of call options increases. In the financial options market, the trading PCR of financial options shows a downward trend, reflecting the weakening of short sentiment in the market. The trading activity of call options in the options market increased and the bullish sentiment increased. At the same time, the PCR value of option position increases, which is usually proportional to the underlying index, reflecting that the underlying index is in a significant upward trend. Combined with the analysis of fundamentals and policy aspects, it is expected that the trading PCR will remain low in May, the PCR value of positions will remain high, and market sentiment will be more volatile. In terms of volatility, as of the end of April, the real volatility of the index increased month-on-month, mainly driven by market bulls. Implied volatility rebounded with bullish sentiment, but the range is small, it is expected that this round of volatility rise space is limited, the index is more likely to shock rise. In May, bulls are dominant, but the room for release is limited, so it is recommended to chase the rally cautiously. The strategy of shorting implied volatility or selling put options is worthy of attention. The skewness index skew of financial options has fallen somewhat, but the overall structure is stable. The premium rate of call options is in line with the characteristics of mean regression, and this pullback may create space for the next rally. Copper and aluminum options trading volume increased significantly, methanol, PTA options trading downturn in the commodity options market, copper and aluminum options trading volume in April increased significantly compared with the previous month, trading PCR decreased and remained at a low level, call options trading volume increased, market bullish sentiment increased. The PCR value of copper and aluminum options increased, showing a long trend. In contrast, the average daily turnover of methanol and PTA options decreased month-on-month, in the low trading area, trading PCR and position PCR values decreased simultaneously, reflecting that the market long and short sentiment are low, the expectation is mainly volatile. The trading volume of gold and silver options rose first and then fell in April, and the bulls returned to normal. The PCR value of gold options positions fell from the high level, but the PCR value remained low, reflecting the expectation of high volatility in precious metal prices. The historical volatility and implied volatility of copper options continue to rise under the influence of bullish sentiment. International macro changes have a great impact on the non-ferrous plate during the long holiday, and the volatility of copper and aluminum may rise further after the holiday. The implied volatility of methanol and PTA remains low, and the hidden wave of PTA is close to the extremely low value in the past three years. Although the sharp fall in international crude oil prices during the long holiday may affect the cost side of PTA prices, PTA prices still face resistance and support to maintain strong volatility expectations. In terms of gold options, the previous extremely high bullish sentiment has returned to normal, with a decline in option trading volume, a decline in implied volatility, a skewed return of the term structure of hidden waves and expected falling waves. During the long holiday, the sharp rise in international soybean meal prices may stimulate the short-term rise of soybean meal options, but the upper resistance is large, the trading volume is insufficient, and the room for volatility rise is limited. Risk factorSpaceinvaderspinball: bad economic data, Fed tightening policy more than expected