Article | zebra consumption Yang Wei

Liquor and SpiritsGametoearncryptoHas become a game for giants. In recent years, the new entrants to the liquor industry are all at the helm and wiper, all from the capital tycoons.

However, even they have no way to start in the face of a more monolithic liquor market that has entered the stock era.

The business of China Resources blessed Sands Liquor has plummeted, and Golden seed Liquor continues to lose money; Fosun Guo Guangchang is happy that the wine industry is under performance pressure; Rock shares (rights protection) are affected by the thunderstorm of Haiyin's wealth and suffer from a liquidity crisis; Qinghai Spring Linghua Liquor, even the business has been unable to recover for the time being.

Cross-border liquor, collective Waterloo. There are common reasons, but also have their own difficulties. It is also crucial where to go next.

Cross-border liquor, collective Waterloo

Driven by the rise in the market, the overall performance of the head liquor company is strong and other multiple good stimulation, liquor stocks ushered in a long-lost overall rise.

In the last two trading days alone, Guizhou Moutai (600519)GametoearncryptoThe share price of .SH) rose 3.81%, and the market capitalization increased by more than 80 billion yuan, while the liquor Ⅱ plate (340500) rose 4.40%.

However, there is a liquor company, but perfectly missed this wealth feast. Two trading days after the festival, Qinghai Spring (600381.SH) fell to the limit continuously.

On April 30, the Qinghai Spring 2023 report arrived late. Due to the negative deduction of non-net profit for the last three consecutive fiscal years, and the accounting firm issued a non-standard audit opinion on the company's 2023 financial report, the company's stock was warned of other risks, which became the spring of ST.

In 2023, Qinghai's spring operating income was 214 million yuan, an increase of 33.52% over the same period last year, and its net profit was-268 million yuan, making a loss for the fourth year in a row and deducting non-losses for the fifth year in a row.

In 2024, Q1, the company's operating income increased by 49.96% over the same period last year to 84.4994 million yuan, and continued to lose 26.9051 million yuan. More importantly, its core liquor product, Lanhua Liquor, was removed from major e-commerce platforms after it was named by CCTV at 315. It has not been put back on the shelves so far, and the next business pressure is expected to be greater.

Cross-border spirits players who are as dismayed as Qinghai Spring are also China Resources Beer (00291.HK).

The liquor business of China Resources Beer is mainly Sands Liquor Industry. In 2023, the business had a turnover of 2.083 billion yuan and a profit of 130 million yuan before interest and tax. You know, before the acquisition of Sands Wine, the net profit after tax in 2021 and the first half of 2022 was 1.315 billion yuan and 670 million yuan respectively. What happened to Sands Wine in recent years is unknown to the outside world.

Another liquor business in which China Resources Beer is deeply involved, Golden seed Liquor (600199.SH), one of Anhui Liquor's four Golden Flowers, did not see a substantial improvement in performance in 2023 after years of losses, with operating income up 23.92% to 1.469 billion yuan and a further loss of 22.0692 million yuan.

As for Shanxi Fen Liquor (600809.SH), which is a strategic investment of the China Resources Department, it has ushered in a major performance breakthrough through the nationalization strategy in recent years, pointing to the third spirits and playing the role of the investor, which does not play a decisive role.

It seems that capital is often the icing on the cake for industry, and it is difficult to provide timely assistance.

At that time, the three cross-border liquor giants, which were on a par with the China Resources system, also included compound galaxies and variety series.

The wine industry of the compound system, which relies on low-end wine, has sustained its growth, but its profitability has been affected, with operating income of 7.081 billion yuan and net profit of 1.771 billion yuan in 2023, up 16.93% and 5.09% respectively from the same period last year. Direct performance declined in the first quarter of this year, and operating cash flow continued to halve on the basis of a drop of more than 30% last year.

As for the liquor business of Variety Department, because the performance of unlisted companies has not been made public. All I know is that Zhu Wei, chairman of Guizhou Chun & Qingjiu & uniform Wine, who used to be quite active on social media, has also stopped a lot.

In 2023, the only cross-border spirit player who looked good was Rock shares (600696.SH), with operating income of 1.629 billion yuan and net profit of 87.0704 million yuan, up 49.30% and 133.00% respectively over the same period last year.

However, since the related party Haiyin Wealth thunderstorm, Rock shares have also encountered liquidity pressure, affecting normal business, resulting in the company's 2024 Q1 operating income of 109 million yuan, return to the mother of net profit-19.6608 million yuan, down 71.94% and 163.35% respectively compared with the same period last year.

Cross-border spirit players, really no one can play?

Capital tycoon, pouring into liquor

In this batch of cross-border spirit players, Zhang Xuefeng, chairman of Qinghai Spring (600381.SH), discovered the charm of the liquor industry earlier.

In 2016, the company's main product, "extreme grass", was stopped by the relevant departments, eager to find new business. Around 2018, the company entered the liquor industry, testing small bottles of cool dew.

After the low-priced liquor faded out of the market, Qinghai Spring directly targeted the ultra-high-end liquor market, launching Linhua Liquor with novel concepts, ultra-high pricing and vigorous strategy.

Inspiration from the old gentleman to dream; ask the Nobel laureate platform; price second kill Maotai wine, standard price 5860 yuan / bottle, boutique 58600 yuan / bottle; in the airport, high-speed rail stations, core media covered with advertisements …...

No matter what the actual sales are, in short, through this series of earth-shattering operations, Linghua Liquor has once become the top of the liquor market.

Compared with the ticket-playing nature of marketing guru Zhang Xuefeng, the industrial operation of Li Shengda and Zhu Wei in recent years is the bottom of liquor experts.

Twenty years ago, Yanghe moved from a local distillery to the top three in the liquor industry by virtue of its top liquor industry operation. In this process, industrial investors and management team play an important role.

Yi Shengda, who was at the helm of the variety department, was one of the main investors in Yanghe at that time. Zhu Wei, one of the key contributors to the rise of Yanghe, was vice president of Yanghe (002304.SZ).

In 2019, Variety Group acquired Guizhou Chun, a veteran Guizhou liquor company, which was run by Zhu Wei. Under the leadership of Zhu Wei, it launched the real vintage strategy and sold wine through social media. In short, after some operation, Guizhou Chun turned the situation around.

Subsequently, Li Shengda took the helm, Zhu Wei took the market, successively won Zhijiang Liquor Industry, Lin Lang Liquor Industry, Guizhou Green Liquor, Guizhou uniform Liquor and other small and medium-sized distilleries to form a liquor industry group.

Compared with Li Shengda and Zhu Wei's step by step, compound galaxy, rock shares and China Resources system, the liquor industry is high, capital first, the industry then, in the most hot period of the liquor sector, squeezed into this market.

In 2020, the complex system, which turned to China and had heavy consumption, won the control of 603919.SH and the wine industry successively. At the same time, he holds two A-share liquor listed companies, which are unprecedented and difficult to come after. Later, in order to solve the problem of inter-industry competition and to ease the liquidity pressure of the compound galaxy, Guo Guangchang let go of the gold emblem, retired to the second shareholder, and focused on giving up.

At about the same time, Rock shares, through the integration of assets such as Zhanggong Liquor, Yangtze River Industry and Gaosao Liquor, opened up a new listed liquor company during the headwind period when A shares closed the floodgates to spirits.

And China Resources Beer, although late in the game, directed the most wonderful part of the cross-border liquor scene of capital and industrial integration.

At the beginning of 2023, China Resources Beer spent 10 billion yuan to complete the holding of Sands Liquor, a small giant of soy sauce and liquor, which should be the largest M & An in the liquor industry in recent years.

In 2022, China Resources participated in the blending of golden seed wine and became an indirect controlling shareholder. However, the actual trading of golden seed wine should be mainly handled by China Resources Beer: Hou Xiaohai, chairman of China Resources Beer; Wei Qiang, executive director, chief financial officer, and vice president of China Resources Beer; he Xiuxia, who has held important positions in many regions of China Resources Beer, has become director and general manager of Golden seed Wine.

Recognize the reality, or stick to it?

Watching the high floors of cross-border spirits rise one after another, watching the dream bubble collapse one after another. Within a few years, these capital giants who have vigorously entered the liquor industry have fallen into their own difficulties.

There are different opinions on the positioning, products, key channels and marketing models of liquor enterprises, so it is difficult to simply evaluate the level. What these cross-border players have in common is that most of them are guided by laymen. It is not uncommon for senior executives to run up against a brick wall in the market because of their lack of experience in liquor operation.

Can the investment team do a good job in the operation of the liquor industry? Will the team that sells well beer be able to make spirits well? Brands that are good at concept and marketing, without industry and channel foundation, how to break the situation in the liquor market?

The only thing that can be talked about professionally is actually the combination of Chu Shengda and Zhu Wei. At the beginning of this year, the Variety Department was like a tiger. Zhang Daohong, former chairman of Jinsha Wine Industry, became the director and general manager of Zhijiang Wine Industry. In the follow-up, whether Zhijiang wine industry can stand up again like Guizhou Chun is worth looking forward to.

The main reason for the collective Waterloo of cross-border liquor players is that the structure of the liquor market is relatively fixed, so it is difficult to have room to accept outsiders.

The most typical is the spring in Qinghai, which made popular wine in the early stage and then turned to super-high-end, often famous but without a market. After 315, under today's high-handed supervision, it may not even be so easy to resume business.

Moreover, since 2016, the liquor market has entered the stock stage. In 2023, the output of liquor enterprises above the national scale was 4.492 million liters, down 2.8 percent from the same period last year; the operating income was 756.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7 percent over the same period last year, and the total profit was 232.8 billion yuan, an increase of 7.5 percent over the same period last year. The total volume has shrunk, and the growth rates of income and profits have dropped sharply. In just a few years, the number of liquor enterprises above scale has shrunk by more than 1/3.

During the rising period of the industry, all kinds of players can eat meat and drink soup. During the contraction of the industry, even the traditional giants are facing the pressure of growth and decline, where is there any extra room for new forces from across the border?

At the moment, the most urgent thing is Rock shares. If the liquidity pressure of Haiyin Wealth can not be resolved, the best way out for this listed company, I am afraid, can only emulate the wine industry at that time.

For the next man at the helm, there are also two issues that need to be clarified. As a new brand, the industrial influence of Shanghai Guijiu is still relatively weak; in addition, the dispute with Yanghe about the trademark of Guijiu and the negative record of the predecessor of the listed company, as a result, the company has been unable to change its securities acronym to "Shanghai Guijiu" until now.

Despite the fact that Guo Guangchang is very attentive to 600702.SH, any company can be put on the shelf in the huge balance sheet of the compound system. Prior to Tsing Tao Beer, Jinhui wine, from full of feelings into the account balance.

For cross-border spirit players under pressure, it is not without precedent to recognize the reality of withdrawal. Lenovo Holdings entered the liquor industry even earlier, acquired many liquor companies such as Kong Family, Wuling, Wen Wang Gong and Qianlong drunken, and established Fenglian Liquor Industry ten years ago. In the end, he chose to pack and sell it to Lao Bai Gan.

Huarun Department and Variety Department, chances are that they will stick to it in the liquor industry. On the one hand, they have a stronger family background, which can be regarded as the "patient capital" of the liquor industry, and they also have a certain industrial operation ability.

More crucially, the main business of China Resources Beer is under pressure to continue to improve; 600770.SH, the core variety share of the Variety Department, is empty and losing money for years, and they are in urgent need of the liquor business to become a new business bright spot.